Better than some, but far from good enough!

 

Unemployment Rate:

             September       June          January       March       April           May

                  2010             2010             2011         2011          2011            2011

Utah:         7.5%              7.2%              7.6%         7.6%           7.4%        7.3%

U.S.:         9.6%              9.5%              9.0%         9.0%           8.9%        9.1%

 

Year-Over Nonfarm Job Growth

             September       June          January       March        April          May

                  2010             2010             2011           2011          2011          2011

Utah:         0.8%,             1.0%              1.5%         1.6%           1.6%        1.5%

U.S.:         0.2%              1.0%              0.7%         1.0%           1.1%        0.7%

 

 

UTAH NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT

As the seasonal jobs move south!

Looking for a job?

Your "Best Bets"!

·         Garfield

·         Grand

·         Daggett

·         Wayne

·         Rich

·         Kane

·         San Juan

You're going to struggle however in:

·         Summit

·         Cache

·         Iron

·         Sanpete

·         Utah

·         Salt Lake

·         Millard

 

UTAH NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT
County	January(f)	February(f)	March(f)	April(f)	May(f)	# Change Jan - May 2011	% Change Jan - May 2011
Garfield	1,867	1,869	1,926	2,473	2,729	862	31.6%
Grand	3,510	3,674	4,256	4,791	5,067	1,557	30.7%
Daggett	345	347	362	392	474	129	27.2%
Wayne	837	862	906	1,043	1,135	298	26.3%
Rich	479	475	483	525	616	137	22.2%
Kane	2,494	2,513	2,653	2,908	3,144	650	20.7%
San Juan	3,800	3,849	3,999	4,242	4,329	529	12.2%
Morgan	1,769	1,767	1,789	1,845	1,897	128	6.7%
Juab	2,961	2,982	3,042	3,151	3,162	201	6.4%
Uintah	13,539	13,672	13,752	14,174	14,431	892	6.2%
Washington	44,485	45,200	46,012	46,664	47,228	2,743	5.8%
Duchesne	7,346	7,437	7,513	7,757	7,779	433	5.6%
Piute	265	269	274	268	280	15	5.4%
Emery	3,603	3,638	3,848	3,919	3,791	188	5.0%
Beaver	2,043	2,066	2,061	2,046	2,146	103	4.8%
Davis	98,325	98,404	99,394	101,274	103,181	4,856	4.7%
Sevier	7,703	7,717	7,792	7,891	8,075	372	4.6%
Tooele	15,395	15,342	15,652	16,020	15,888	493	3.1%
Wasatch	5,894	5,870	5,828	5,876	6,074	180	3.0%
Weber	87,993	88,677	89,147	89,637	90,595	2,602	2.9%
Box Elder	16,522	16,557	16,501	16,688	16,958	436	2.6%
Carbon	9,590	9,462	9,500	9,708	9,826	236	2.4%
Millard	3,969	3,969	3,977	3,986	4,062	93	2.3%
Salt Lake	570,846	571,470	574,233	575,450	577,930	7,084	1.2%
Utah	175,136	175,508	176,812	178,914	176,896	1,760	1.0%
Sanpete	6,842	6,830	6,881	6,879	6,894	52	0.8%
Iron	15,050	15,083	14,952	15,188	15,030	-20	-0.1%
Cache	50,235	49,750	49,685	49,893	49,383	-852	-1.7%
Summit	24,810	24,774	24,367	22,999	18,597	-6,213	-33.4%

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services, 6/16/11

 

  

Global Business Confidence

Global business confidence stabilized last week but has lost some altitude since peaking early in the year. U.S. and Japanese businesses are behind the more cautious survey responses. Most of the falloff is due to weaker responses to the broad questions in the survey regarding the economy's current performance and outlook six months from now. The weaker readings are also largely due to a smaller percentage of positive responses to the survey questions and not an increase in the negative responses. Responses to the more specific questions regarding the strength of sales, equipment investment and hiring remain firmer. Despite the decline in confidence, sentiment remains consistent with a global economy that is expanding at the high end of its potential growth rate.

Current Account: -$7.1 bil
The U.S. current account deficit widened from $112.2 billion in the fourth quarter to $119.3 billion in the first quarter, an increase of $7.1 billion. The trade gap widened significantly last quarter, but this was partly offset by a surge in the surplus on income to a record high. Net transfer payments were little changed. As a share of GDP, the current account deficit increased from 3% to 3.2%, not too far from the recovery high of 3.4% set back in mid-2010.

Treasury International Capital Flows: +$6.6 bil
Net long-term capital flows to the U.S. rose to $30.6 billion in April from $24 billion in March, the first acceleration in six months. Foreign official institutions, including central banks and sovereign wealth funds, increased their holdings of U.S. long-term securities. Private foreign investors increased their holdings, but at a slower rate than in the previous month. The pattern of foreign purchases indicates a decent appetite for U.S. securities.

FOMC Monetary Policy: 0.0 - 0.25%
The Federal Open Market Committee announced no changes to monetary policy. The central bank will complete its second round of quantitative easing at the end of this month, as it had previously announced. The statement also said the FOMC expects the fed funds rate to remain near zero for "an extended period." The description of the economic outlook was more subdued compared with the prior statement from mid-April, saying that the recovery is continuing "somewhat more slowly than the Committee had expected." Although inflation has picked up in recent months, the FOMC expects it to slow again in the near term. The monetary policy decision was unanimous.

Industrial Production: +0.1%
Industrial production rose by 0.1% in May, including a 0.4% rise in manufacturing output. Auto output fell only modestly as Japan-related supply chain disruptions diminished during the month. The nonauto manufacturing data showed growth picking up in May, with a 0.6% increase the largest so far in 2011. Meanwhile, more seasonal weather following a hotter than normal April led to a 2.8% drop in utility output, while mining output rose for a third straight month, adding 0.5%.

 

Consumer Price Index:+ 0.2%
The consumer price index rose 0.2% in May, moderating substantially from several previous readings but still a notch above the consensus. The core CPI rose 0.3%, maintaining its steady acceleration over the past two months as previous increases in headline inflation filter through. At 1.5%, the year-ago rate of core inflation continues to inch up but remains well within the Federal Reserve's target, warranting no deviation from the set monetary policy path.

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index:-44.0
Consumer confidence once again extended its trend of improvement seen in recent weeks. According to the Bloomberg consumer comfort index, sentiment gained 1.9 points, to -44 for the week ended June 12. The improvement was driven by better perceptions of personal finances and the buying climate; the state of the economy component lost ground.

Mass Layoffs: 1,599
Mass layoff events in May increased from the previous month, but the number of affected employees declined, mirroring the somewhat mixed messages in more timely data on weekly reports on initial claims for unemployment insurance. The tick higher in the total number of events is likely to be a temporary erosion in the labor market, as indicated by the recent stabilization and slight decline in initial unemployment insurance claims. The number of layoffs involving at least 50 workers from a single establishment increased to 1,599 in May. These layoffs involved 143,540 employees.

Jobless Claims: -13,000
Initial claims are heading in the right direction as they fell by a larger than anticipated 16,000 to 414,000 for the week ending June 11. Continuing the recent trend, the prior week's data were revised higher from 427,000 to 430,000. The four-week moving average didn't budge, which suggests that both the labor market and the broader economy are struggling to gather momentum. Continuing claims-a proxy for hiring-decreased by 21,000 to 3.675 million for the week ending June 4.

State Personal Income: +1.8%
Personal income grew 1.8% in the first quarter, an acceleration over the fourth quarter's 0.8% rate of growth. The temporary payroll tax cut-part of the late-December stimulus package, which went into effect in January-reduced contributions to Social Security, accounting for most of the acceleration in personal income growth. Mining and durable goods manufacturing had the strongest wage growth and benefited those states heavily exposed to these industries, making income growth in North Dakota and Wyoming the fastest among all states. Iowa's income growth was the slowest because rising prices of livestock hurt farm incomes.
 

MBA Mortgage Applications Survey: -5.9%
The composite index fell by 5.9% in the week ending June 17, extending the recent choppy pattern for mortgage applications. The refinancing index declined by 7.2%, though even with the pullback, it is near its best level of the year. The purchase index dropped 2.3% from the previous week, and the index is little changed so far in the second quarter.

FHFA Purchase-Only House Price Index: -5.7%
The FHFA monthly purchase-only house price index increased 0.8% from March to April-its first increase since early 2010-but is down 5.7% from April 2010, slightly better than expected. The index is now 19.3% below its peak in April 2007. Regionally, the increase was led by the Pacific and West South Central census divisions, while declines in other divisions were relatively mild.MBA Mortgage Applications Survey: 13.0%
For the week ending June 10, the MBA mortgage index climbed 13% from the previous week. It now stands at 584.6. Both the refinance and purchase indices posted similar gains. The purchase index is at 191.1, an increase of 4.5%. Meanwhile, the refinance index jumped 16.5% to 2,883.7.

NAHB Housing Market Index: -3
The NAHB housing market index fell by 3 points in June, somewhat worse than predicted, confirming the weakened state of the housing market in light of the slowing U.S. recovery. All three index components-single-family present sales, single-family sales expected in six months, and prospective buyer traffic-declined in June, while three of the four regional subindices also declined.

New Residential Construction (C20): +3.5% mil
Homebuilding is gathering momentum once again. Housing starts rose in May to an annualized rate of 560,000 units. This pace is 3.5% above the April pace. The census also revised upward April data by nearly 3% to 541,000 units. Both single-family and multifamily starts are higher. Permit issuance advanced 8.7% in May compared with April. Completions also increased, but marginally, by 0.4%, driven by an uptick in single-family completions.

Existing-Home Sales: -3.8%
The tepid economic recovery is weighing on housing demand. On par with expectations, sales of existing homes retreated in May, dropping 3.8% to an annualized 4.81 million units. The year-on-year decline is also large at 15%, but last spring's homebuyer tax credit makes this comparison difficult. Months of inventory increased slightly to 9.3, and the median house price declined 4.6% y/y.

Chain Store Sales Snapshot: -0.7%
The ICSC chain store sales index fell 0.7% in the latest week. The second consecutive decline took the sales index to its lowest level since February. However, sales fell almost as much in the comparable week last year, so year-over-year growth slipped only slightly, to 2.2%. Nonetheless, this is the weakest growth since the end of January. The ICSC indicated that customer traffic was weak for discounters and apparel retailers.

Natural Gas Storage Report: 69 bcf
Working gas in underground storage rose by 69 billion cubic feet during the week ending June 10, matching the consensus estimate of analysts. However, traders had priced in a smaller increase; as such, the price of natural gas is falling in response to this report.

Oil and Gas Inventories: -1.7 mil barrels
Crude oil inventories fell by 1.7 million barrels during the week ending June 17, in line with expectations of a 1.825 million barrel decline. Gasoline inventories fell by 464,000 barrels, contrasting with expectations for a 1 million barrel increase. Distillate inventories rose by 1.1 million barrels, exceeding expectations for a 550,000 barrel increase. Oil inventories at Cushing OK rose to 38 million barrels from 37.8 million barrels. Refinery capacity utilization rose well above expectations, from 86.1% to 89.2%. Petroleum demand rose. This report is supportive of an increase in oil prices.

  

Source: Economy.com