Monday Report

METROPOLITAN TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH (1970-2010)

Source: The Business Journals On Numbers 10/17/11 

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Global Business Confidence

Global business confidence is stable but shows no indication of reviving after falling sharply this spring and summer. Sentiment has not changed appreciably since in the immediate wake of the U.S. Treasury debt-ceiling spectacle in early August. There is also little indication that businesses will soon break out of their funk as expectations regarding the economy's prospects into next year remain dim. The most encouraging aspect of the survey is that sales and equipment investment are holding up and hiring has firmed a bit in recent weeks.four-week period than it was a year earlier. This mixed report will not have a big impact on crude oil prices.

FOMC Monetary Policy: 0.0-0.25
The Federal Open Market Committee kept monetary policy unchanged. The central bank will continue to sell short-term securities over the next year and purchase long-term securities in an effort to keep long-term interest rates low and support growth. The Federal Reserve will also roll over maturing Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities to keep its balance sheet stable, and the fed funds target rate will remain in the 0% to 0.25% range. The FOMC remains concerned about weak growth and the high unemployment rate and expects inflation to slow. The statement noted that risks are to the downside. The three members who had been dissenting in favor of policy tightening agreed to the statement. However, another member voted against the statement, calling for looser monetary policy.

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index: -1.1
According to the Bloomberg consumer comfort index, sentiment fell from -51.1 to -53.2 for the week ending October 30. This decrease moves the index to one of its lowest levels ever recorded. The lowered perceptions were evident in all three segments of the survey.
 

Agricultural Prices:+ 3.4%
The index of prices received by farmers increased by 3.4% in October. The increase in the overall index is driven by an uptick in crop prices that rose 1.5% and the livestock index that gained 0.7%. With the latest increase, the overall index is 23% higher than a year ago. The prices paid index is unchanged from a month ago but 11% higher compared with a year ago. Even as major supply constraints ease, flood- and drought-inflicted damages to the domestic crop in recent months ensure food price inflation will continue well into 2012.

Semiconductor Billings:+ 2.7%
The three-month moving average of semiconductor billings grew 2.7% in September, to $25.8 billion.

Factory Orders (M3): +0.3%
Orders for manufactured goods rose 0.3% in September. The previously released figures for durable goods orders were revised upward to -0.6%. Unfilled orders rose, while inventories grew only slightly, with a 0.1% increase. Revisions to core capital goods data were positive. Core capital goods orders rose 2.9%. Shipments were unrevised at -0.9%.

Productivity and Costs: +3.1%
Nonfarm business productivity rose 3.1% (SAAR) in the third quarter, as output increased more than hours. The consensus was for an increase of 2.7%. Unit labor costs fell 2.4% in the quarter. There are few inflationary pressures coming from the labor market. Productivity will slow in the near term. This, combined with low unit labor costs, should lead firms to hire as demand increases.

Challenger Report: -72,971
The number of planned job cuts receded in October after climbing sharply in September. Employers announced cuts affecting 42,759, down from 115,730. September's total was driven up by a handful of companies that announced large cuts and was not a sign of a weakening labor market. Thus, the lower number in October is more consistent with labor market trends. Financial services and the government accounted for the biggest decline from September.

Jobless Claims: -9,000
Initial claims fell by 9,000 to 397,000 for the week ending October 29; the prior week's data were revised from 402,000 to 406,000. The drop below the 400,000 threshold in the latest week was a better than expected improvement and puts initial jobless claims at their lowest level since late September; the downtick in claims joins the chorus of slowly improving economic data. Continuing claims dropped in the prior week.

Construction Spending (C30): +0.2%
Construction spending for September increased 0.2% above its revised August level, though it is still 1.3% below its September 2010 level. The increase in total spending was led by increases in private residential and nonresidential spending, though public construction spending is still falling. The revised August and September data confirm that total construction spending is on an upward trend, though still being pulled down by public spending cuts.

MBA Mortgage Applications Survey: +0.2%
For the week ending October 28, 2011, the composite index inched up 0.2% from the previous week, driven by an uptick in purchase applications. The purchase index increased 1.8% from the previous week, although it is still well below year-ago levels. The refinance index slipped 0.2%, but its upward trend is unchanged because of attractive mortgage rates.

Vehicle Sales - AutoData: +13.2 mil, SAAR
Vehicle sales continued to recover in October. Sales reached 13.23 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, up from 13.07 million in September and the best pace of growth since February. The recovery in sales is very welcome news in view of the tepid labor market expansion and consumers' pessimistic outlook for the economy.

Chain Store Sales:- 3.7%
Growth in consumer spending at chain stores moderated in October. Total same-store sales growth fell to 3.7%, the first reading below 4% this year after an adjustment for Easter effects. The slowing was disappointing as comparisons were modestly easier than recent months. However, the late Halloween shifted some holiday sales out of the fiscal month and warm weather may have been a drag. Excluding fuel and international sales growth fell to 3.3% from 4.6%. Despite the slowing, growth remains healthy in light of the weak economic environment and low confidence.

Natural Gas Storage Report:+ 78 bil cubic feet
Working gas in underground storage rose 78 billion cubic feet during the week ending October 28, far exceeding the consensus estimate of 72 billion cubic feet. This report will cause natural gas prices to fall.

Oil Inventories: 339.5 mil barrels
Crude oil inventories increased by 1.8 million barrels for the week ending October 28, above expectations for a 1 million barrel increase. Gasoline inventories rose by 1.4 million barrels, contrasting with expectations for an 800,000 barrel decline. Distillate inventories fell by 3.6 million barrels; they were forecast to have fallen by 1.8 million barrels. Cushing OK stockpiles rose by 600,000 barrels. Refinery capacity utilization rose to 85.3% from 84.8%. Total petroleum demand fell by 243,000 barrels per day and is 1.9% lower in the most recent four-week period than it was a year earlier. This report will modestly weigh on crude oil prices.
 

Bed Bath & Beyond

Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc. trades as Bed Bath & Beyond at more than 980 locations nationwide.  The stores, offering housewares, home décor and seasonal items, occupy spaces of 20,000 sq.ft. to 75,000 sq.ft. in freestanding locations and mixed-use, outlet, power, specialty, strip and tourist centers, as well as downtown areas.  Plans call for 60 openings throughout the existing market during the coming 18 months.  Typical leases run 10 years.  A vanilla shell and specific improvements are preferred.  Preferred demographics include a population of 100,000 within five miles earning $50,000 as the average household income. For more information, contact Seth Geldzahler, Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc., 650 Liberty Avenue, Union, NJ 07083

Five of Deloitte's Technology Fast 500 companies are headquartered in Utah, including three in Salt Lake County and two in Utah County.  

Company Name                             % Growth      City 

• 89   DigiCert                       1132%         Lindon UT               Ken Bretschneider
• 100 SecureAlert, Inc.           1063%        Sandy UT                David Derrick
• 152 MediConnect Global      667%          South Jordan UT      Amy Rees Anderson
• 325 Myriad Genetics, Inc.     260%         Salt Lake City UT     Peter D. Meldrum
• 381 Fishbowl                       209%         Orem UT                  David Williams

(more)

#1 California                             25,575

#2 Colorado                               6,186

#3 Arizona                                  4,786

#4 Pennsylvania                        4,703

#5 New York                              4,279

#6 Florida                                   4,224

#7 Texas                                    3,346

#8 Oregon                                  3,346

#9 New Jersey                           2,871

#10 Massachusetts                    2,395

#11 North Carolina                     2,392

#12 Washington                         2,301

#13 New Mexico                        2,099

#14 Nevada                               2,025

#15 Utah                                    1,876

#16 Maryland                             1,782

#17 Georgia                               1,733

#18 Wisconsin                            1,677

#19 Virginia                                1,528

#20 Illinois                                  1,491

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